Wednesday, September 10, 2008

September 7, 2008 Electoral College Predictions

As the "future next President of the United States" Al Gore learned first-hand, winning the popular vote was great, but you have to win 271 Electoral College votes to receive the keys to the White House.  The 2008 Presidential election again promises to be close, and a look at the Electoral College map suggests the race is more wide open than some people may think.

Many pundits believe the race is coming down to just a few states. Chuck Todd political research director for NBC news has said the race is going to come down to four states. However, an analysis of's state-by-state Presidential futures markets suggests there may be as many as fifteen states in play.

The Obama campaign appears to be cognizant of the importance of winning the Electoral College. Recently, they opened a campaign office in Omaha, Nebraska. Why in Nebraska -- a long-time Republican stronghold? Because Nebraska (in addition to Maine) votes by Congressional District,  as opposed the "winner takes all" method used by the rest of the country. The Obama campaign feels they may be able to win the Congressional District surrounding Omaha -- thus winning them an additional Electoral College vote.

Over the next seven weeks, I'll be revising the Electoral College Prediction map to to and identify the real "battleground" states in the 2008 Presidential election.

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