Tuesday, September 9, 2008

A review of Intrade.com's Presidential Futures Market data for the periods surrounding each party's convention revealed some interesting patterns. In order to compare the market strength of each party (the "convention bump"), I used a baseline of the closing price for Obama and McCain on the Thursday prior to the start of each convention. This was done to see the capture the effect of Sarah Palin's nomination for Vice President.

The market did a nice job of forecasting the post-convention tightening of the Presidential race. Obama's strength actually peaked the evening of Hillary Clinton's speech, and declined every subsequent night. Despite all the hoopla, Obama's support prior to the convention was actually higher than after his speech on Thursday night.

In contrast, after an initial bump after Palin's announcement, McCain's support fell below his baseline support. The low point of the Republican convention happened after Joe Lieberman's speech; however, McCain's support increased throughout the rest of the convention. Unlike Obama, McCain's support was higher and increasing at the end of his convention.

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