Thursday, October 30, 2008

The Race Tightens a Little More

The Intrade Presidential Futures Market Race by State tightened again this week, with just five days until the election. With Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada still up for grabs, Barak Obama still does not have a lock on the election. However, traditionally-Republican states have begun to soften. Georgia,  North & South Dakota, and Montana -- all states that are typically solid Republican strongholds -- have drifted from solid Republican predictors to "too close to call." 

This may be bad news for John McCain, but the trends so far don't suggest an Obama "mandate" like some have previously predicted.  As the vast majority of voters traditionally decide their Presidential choice no later than three days prior to the election, we should know something more definitive Sunday morning. As an early read from the campaigns, watch for John McCain to start touting down-ticket races as a sign they believe they have lost. On the Democratic side, watch for the Obama campaign to start adding additional campaign stops, especially in Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, or Florida if they think the race is going to be close.

Monday, October 20, 2008

The Race Agains Tightens (a little)

The Presidential Futures Market data suggests the Presidential race tightened a bit this week. Even though the markets are still predicting an Obama victory, Florida, Nevada and Virginia moving from a tenuous Democratic lead, North Dakota (traditionally a strong Republican state) moving into toss-up territory, and Montana moving back into Republican hands suggests the race may be closer than some analysts are currently predicting.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Obama Goes Over the Top

With Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Virginia moving into the Democratic column, and Georgia, Montana, and South Carolina moving from the Republican column to "Too Close to Call," the Democratic Party appear poised to win the Electoral College on November 4th. Coupled with Barak Obama's probability-of-winning moving over the 80th percintile, the Presidential race is beginning to look like a convincing win for the Democrats with just three weeks to go.

The Third Presidential Debate...

A couple interesting findings from the Presidential Futures Market trading as a result of the Third Presidential debate...
  • During and immediately after the debate, McCain shares were trading at over twice the rate compared to Obama. 
  • Compared to the volitility seen during the first and second debates, the the price levels of trades held steady throughout the third debate. 
  • Immediately after the debate; however, there were large changes in positions, as Obama's price levels spiked while McCain's levels fell rapidly.

The Wobbly Senate Races...

A review of the U.S. Senate Futures markets suggest things aren't so great in Dixie...

In states that have been solidly Republican in the recent past, the Republican South seems to have cracks in its armor. At this time, the Senate races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Kentucky are still too close to call. Even the Senate seat previously held by hard-core Republican Trent Lott is too close to call. Finally, traditionally-Republican states of Virgina, Louisiana, and Montana are also predicted to go Democratic at this time. 

It May have Ended September 15th...

If Barak Obama eventually goes on to win the 2008 Presidential election, one could conciveably point to September 15, 2008 as the day John McCain lost the election. An analysis of the Presidential Futures Market shows McCain's probability of winning the election peaked on September 15th, the same day Barak Obama's chances bottomed-out prior to moving through the eighty-percent, probability-of-winning level.

The analysis also suggests that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates made absolutely no difference in changing the direction of each candidate's probability-of-winning trends. The convential wisdom would suggest the race should tighten in the next two weeks. However, unless Senator Obama stumbles badly, the mind-set of the American people is somehow moved off the economy, or Senator McCain's campaign suddenly finds a campaign theme that begins resonating with larger numbers of voters, this election could already be decided.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Second Presidential Debate

Who "won" the second 2008 Presidential debate? Well, it depends when you asked the question...

If you look at the Presidential Futures Market trading during the debate through the 24 hours afterward, you can see four different answers...

During the first part of the debate, the candidates were essentially tied (in terms of change). When the debate moved into the foreign policy section, McCain's numbers spiked rapidly as Obama's numbers tanked.  However, the more McCain and Obama delved into specfics of foreign policy issues, McCain's numbers tanked as fast as they previously rose, as Obama's numbers rose rapidly.

By the time the debate was over, trading for each candidate moved back to the pre-debate trading levels. However, after stable overnight trading levels, Obama's trading levels have risen approximately eight percent throughout today, as McCain's levels have fallen almost twenty percent over the same time period.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Following John McCain's concession of Michigan, an analysis of the Presidential Futures market state-by-state data shows Barak Obama inching closer to the 271 Electoral College votes needed to predict him the winner of the 2008 Presidential race. Investors now predict Obama will take Michigan. In addition, New Mexico is also now predicted to go to Obama. As of today, Obama is predicted to garner 265 Electoral College votes to McCain's 158 votes, leaving 115 votes to close to call.

These shifts leave only Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and Missouri in play. As of today, with the exception of Nevada and New Hampshire, Obama only needs to pick up one of the remaining states to be predicted the winner in November.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Electoral College turned a little bluer this week, as seen by an analysis of the current data from the state-by-state Presidential Futures market. Pennsylvania, with its 21 Electoral College votes, and a trio of midwest states -- Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin -- are now predicted to go to Barak Obama. One the Republican side, Montana is now predicted to be won by John McCain. As of today, Barak Obama is predicted to receive 243 Electoral College votes, compared to John McCain's 158 votes.