Thursday, September 18, 2008

The Presidential Race Begins Anew...

With the financial services crisis in full swing, the Republicans bump out of their convention was short-lived. As of close of trading on September 18th, the probability of Obama and McCain winning the November Presidential election is tied -- 50% to 50% -- according to trading on the Presidential Futures market. 

Obama’s return to tie on Intrade comes in the midst of a tumultuous week for the McCain-Palin campaign. McCain has been criticized as being out of touch after claiming the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, even as Intrade indicates there is a 50% chance of a recession in 2009.  Palin has been criticized for using private email accounts to circumvent Alaskan freedom of information laws, while key campaign supporter Carly Fiorina criticized her as being unsuited to run a large company.

Finally, the next thirty days could prove critical for each campaign. Given the number of states that allow early voting, and the Obama campaign's targeted voter registration and absentee ballot efforts, the number of voters casting votes prior to Election Day could decide the race as much as three weeks in advance.

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