Thursday, October 30, 2008

The Race Tightens a Little More

The Intrade Presidential Futures Market Race by State tightened again this week, with just five days until the election. With Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada still up for grabs, Barak Obama still does not have a lock on the election. However, traditionally-Republican states have begun to soften. Georgia,  North & South Dakota, and Montana -- all states that are typically solid Republican strongholds -- have drifted from solid Republican predictors to "too close to call." 

This may be bad news for John McCain, but the trends so far don't suggest an Obama "mandate" like some have previously predicted.  As the vast majority of voters traditionally decide their Presidential choice no later than three days prior to the election, we should know something more definitive Sunday morning. As an early read from the campaigns, watch for John McCain to start touting down-ticket races as a sign they believe they have lost. On the Democratic side, watch for the Obama campaign to start adding additional campaign stops, especially in Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, or Florida if they think the race is going to be close.

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