Wednesday, October 15, 2008

It May have Ended September 15th...

If Barak Obama eventually goes on to win the 2008 Presidential election, one could conciveably point to September 15, 2008 as the day John McCain lost the election. An analysis of the Presidential Futures Market shows McCain's probability of winning the election peaked on September 15th, the same day Barak Obama's chances bottomed-out prior to moving through the eighty-percent, probability-of-winning level.

The analysis also suggests that the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates made absolutely no difference in changing the direction of each candidate's probability-of-winning trends. The convential wisdom would suggest the race should tighten in the next two weeks. However, unless Senator Obama stumbles badly, the mind-set of the American people is somehow moved off the economy, or Senator McCain's campaign suddenly finds a campaign theme that begins resonating with larger numbers of voters, this election could already be decided.

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